How to be a Great Weather Forecaster


In the time honoured tradition of “Shoot the messenger” I bring you my guide to weather prediction…

  1. Spend the first two thirds of the forecast talking about weather that has already happened. It is unlikely you will be particularly wrong about this bit.
  2. Say that the weather today will be about the same as yesterday. But use more words. Since this is the case around 60% of the time you are probably going to be more accurate than all the complicated computer programs presently being used.
  3. Make good use of “for the time of year”. Since nobody remembers what on earth that is, everyone will believe that what happens is what was supposed to happen.
  4. If something you didn’t predict happens make good use of “since records began”. This implies that nobody else has seen this happen and so you shouldn’t be expected to anticipate it either. Don’t make the mistake of adding that the records you are referring to are the notes you made on a napkin a week or so ago.
  5. Use words like “intermittent” and “scattered”, particularly in respect of things like rain and sunny periods. That way, if people don’t get that kind of weather where they are it can be rationalised as bad luck on their part.
  6. Use a higher pitched voice for good weather, with a rising inflection at the end of sentences. Use a lower pitched voice for bad weather, with a falling inflection at the end of sentences.  And stare straight at the camera for the really bad bits.
  7. Check out of the window before each forecast.